Ok, too much ice tea at dinner and my mind is racing now. Feeling the need to expend some of the mental train of thoughts.
Looking to the future, what do I see?
Based on trends, short sales began in 2006. At least that is when I did my first one. What a challenge. Soft water system company placed a lien on the property after non payment by the homeowner. Had to negotiate that settlement before closing. Who would think that something that minor would be such a huge problem. Ok, I drifted there. Focus.
The people who sold their home short in 2006 could be returning to the market in 2010 depending on how their credit is looking. Remember my 2006 clients, it did not hurt their credit one bit. They purchased another home in 2007. Short sales for the most part however became dominate in the mid 2008 and 2009. Over the next few years I do believe that those who successfully sold their home short will be returning to purchase a home while prices are low. This is a good thing.
Now, knowing that previously only 20% of all short sales were successful that leaves a whole lot of people who were not. Most of the homes have been and will be foreclosed on unless President Obama really steps in and does something miraculous and brilliant other than throwing money at a not meaningful program (really I feel its a smoke screen to buy him some time to finance this mess).
Off the subject and train of thought for another moment. Seriously, I believe all of these modifications are just a band aid. Most modifications consists of rate reductions and not principal reductions which means these people are still going to be under water or break even "MAYBE" in 10 years. I can already tell you that by human nature most of these homeowners will have something occur in their life which will require them to move. And guess what, they will still have to short sale their home and the banks will still continue to report losses. The government will be subsidizing these banks with payoffs until this all plays out its normal life cycle. In the meantime and in my opinion, the government wants banks to modify so they can slowly pay off these banks over time. The longer this plays out, the longer the government has to finance the banks for their loses and the less they will have to pay out assuming prices gradually rise over time going forward). Again, I am picturing those traffic control lights getting on the freeway. They keep traffic from bottlenecking on the freeway. Loan modifications are the governments way of putting traffic control lights on the financial liability freeway of mortgage loses. I bet the government already knows that a majority of these modifications will end in foreclosure. Can you imagine the financial burden if they just let everyone foreclose now. Talk about great depression. But if the government was really honest and told you their plan, most people would say "screw it", walk away from their home and rent and still save some cash above/over paying the modified payment. Loan modifications in most cases are a false sense of hope....I stress in most cases and in my opinion.
Ok, back to subject (btw, I must say "ok" a lot because my daughter was mocking me in the car this evening while I was on the phone, "Ok, Okay, OOOOkay!", now I am picturing Joe Pesci in Lethal Weapon who said that all the time)
oh yeah, where are we headed? If I wanted to turn this economy around, the first thing I would do would be to get all these people who ruined their credit with short sales and/or foreclosures to buy another home again (under the right lending criteria this time). The sooner we get a majority of the public back into homes, the sooner they will start buying new furniture, landscaping, cars, Walmart.... The longer they rent, the less they spend on durable goods. All the investors that have bought properties over the last year will start flipping them as demand will increase. Investors make money, they buy more homes. They buy more homes: Realtors, title companies, mortgage companies, appraisers, homes inspectors all make more money. They all make more money and so the cycle has a new breath of life blow into its financial windpipes.
If you really want to get me started I could tell you my feelings on how the new immigration laws that took effect 2 years ago only contributed to this housing market and economic crises. I know it costs billions to support them but what people didn't realize is that these illegal immigrants were/are hard workers for minimum wage. Most paid taxes and contributed to the social security system (granted they used false social security numbers to gain employment) but never claimed the refunds. They paid into social security, they purchased goods and services, they ate at restaurants, they bought houses, lots of houses. Yes they also brought crime, abuse to welfare and health care system but somehow I do not feel that the cost of these abuses is anywhere the cost of the S&L crises, Enron, and now the Housing Market Crash by lenient lending guidelines allowed by .... (put whatever political party you want to blame here). Seriously, this last one is a doozy that will affect us for many more years. Will there ever be a way to calculate its true cost to the American people. Now the illegal immigrants that are remaining are still milking the welfare and health care system, but their spouses/significant others can not work to offset the cost or fund my retirement for social security (yes, I am being optimistic that it will be there for me) or their abuses so now it is really costing us the taxpayers money. Brilliant plan. I am so glad somebody really calculated the logic and cost of passing the illegal immigration law. Immigration is just another way for the politicians to snub a part of society by taking the focus off the knife they are putting behind our backs while robbing us blind., hands in our pockets. Sad thing is our heads are spinning so fast trying to keep up that we do not see it happening.
Okay, no more ice tea for me. I mean it when I say I am way to ornery for my own good sometimes. Take my opinion for what it is worth....just another night of never-ending thoughts.
crap....mind is still going.......
And.......if you feel like disagreeing with me by all means. If I am a naive, non educated citizen thinking this way, why would that be? What has the government did to make me feel otherwise or make me want to defend or believe in what they say or do? Give me something to trust you again. Give me something to be proud of you again, to brag about. Yes, I have freedom (including expressing these thoughts at the price of our troops oversees) but even those freedoms are being taken away little by little. So what price are we all paying. My neighbor can't even put a similar neighborhood light post (for security reasons) on HIS land because it is against the HOA rules. And, when he expressed his thoughts about his lamp post on his land, they sued him. Go figure. Instead of putting a knife in my back someone needs to get a backbone themselves and do what is right.
I am hearing way to many noises in my house and its creeping me out now.
1:13am signing out before I get myself into more trouble.
peace
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